minimum colony size to avoid technological collapse

we discover a planet far away that is exactly like earth but without humans. we want to create a colony that can sustain itself without reverting to the stone age. how many people are needed at minimum? we can define criteria for success as follows:
>success
tech development restricted by population growth.
knowledge: enough to earn a minor in math, physics and chemistry.
industry: can produce power tools, motor vehicles (especially for logistics and mining) and synthetic fertilizers. a power grid is available.
>failure
tech level will likely recover in a few millenia or even a few centuries.
knowledge: written language, metalworking, creating buildings, some basic math
industry: can produce iron tools
>total failure
tech level may recover in a few tens or hundreds of millenia.
knowledge: how to hunt and gather
industry: frick all. weaving baskets i guess

this article claims that 110 people can sustain a mars colony with a "successful" technological base (though it leaves some questions unanswered): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-66740-0.pdf

Unattended Children Pitbull Club Shirt $21.68

Black Rifle Cuck Company, Conservative Humor Shirt $21.68

Unattended Children Pitbull Club Shirt $21.68

  1. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    >we want to create a colony that can sustain itself without reverting to the stone age

  2. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    ~10,000 to be safe. That can be sustain a fully functioning city that can grow

  3. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    few million

  4. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    110 sounds insane, there is no way you could sustain >success with anything less than a small country or a huge city, let's say 10 mil.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      10 mil is a massive overestimate though. basically all you need is a community large enough to accommodate a school and several workshops, the most complex of them being a vehicle production plant.

      if you need tech to live you are dependent like a drug addict and literally don't know how to live.

      sending colonists to another planet is much less worthwhile if they're to live as an oogabooga tribe for tens or hundreds of millenia. also worth noting is that training colonists for survival as oogaboogas could actually be harder than training them to work as engineers, chemists, laborers, etc

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        youre underestimating all the processes required to get up to vehicle production and all supporting industries needed to keep the population alive and happy.

        • 1 month ago
          Anonymous

          afaik the big ones would be:
          >education (to train engineers and workers)
          I assume this is covered by society.
          >mining
          you need to mine ore, THOUGH you can probably make do with a few carefully-chosen types.
          >engine manufacture and fuel production
          this depends on the type of fuel available. assuming you go for typical piston engines, you need to be able to refine oil, extract oil and cast engine blocks.
          >vehicle body production
          for larger "working" vehicles, you will need to be able to produce a metal chassis.

          it's not simple, but I don't see why you'd need millions of people to do this.

          is there other life there? if we have to deal with fricking dragons that changes things

          it's not a big change imo. you just need to include a manpower tax for the creation of a small standing army and production of weapons. a few autocannons will make a red smear out of any wildlife and even local pre-firearm civilizations

          • 1 month ago
            Anonymous

            yeah I guess our current tech can frick anything up, like dragons. but if we go into a Helldivers situation thing it's still costly

          • 1 month ago
            Anonymous

            if you want them to be self-sufficient, theyll need to turn that ore into steel which requires more than just ore which will have its own surrounding industries. youll also need to use that steel to remake new tools along with other equipment for other industries such as construction/drilling for and refining fuel/electronics for said vehicles and equipment/etc, so now you need to make more steel than just enough for vehicles. youll also need farmers, grocers, construction workers, doctors, etc.

          • 1 month ago
            Anonymous

            actually, a bronze-age civilization or even tribal societies would be a significant threat to a colony. you'd have to change the way you operate to deal with the possibilities of an army rushing your main base or raiding parties attacking small groups of colonists (e.g. a surveyor or a supply convoy)
            wild animals, on the other hand, would make life a lot easier because you could largely replace farming with hunting, which is a lot more efficient when done with machineguns and trucks.

            if you want them to be self-sufficient, theyll need to turn that ore into steel which requires more than just ore which will have its own surrounding industries. youll also need to use that steel to remake new tools along with other equipment for other industries such as construction/drilling for and refining fuel/electronics for said vehicles and equipment/etc, so now you need to make more steel than just enough for vehicles. youll also need farmers, grocers, construction workers, doctors, etc.

            you're right, metalworking and tool creation should be factored in. however, these things aren't as hard (even slaves in the south could operate steel mills, and most tools are presumably less complex than an engine block) so it's not too big of a deal.
            as an aside, you don't necessarily need steel. other metals / alloys could be substituted.

            a lot of things, like electronics and medicine, can also be "put on the backburner" for several generations until the colony population gets large enough to support them.

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        >10 mil is a massive overestimate though. basically all you need is a community large enough to accommodate a school and several workshops, the most complex of them being a vehicle production plant.
        No way. Think of how North Korea (25mil) or Cuba (11mil) struggle with their isolation. 10mil is the barest minimum.

        • 1 month ago
          Anonymous

          shitty comparision.
          1. neither NK nor Cuba are isolated. This is both good for them (because of trade) and bad (because they get fenced in by more powerful countries)
          even if you considered a scenario with a nearby civilization, they'd be far less formidable enemies and far less valuable trading partners than modern nations. (No, you can't sell them your tech at a huge markup. They'll take inspiration from it, make quantum leaps in development and crush you)
          2. In terms of factors like quality of life, industry, etc, both NK and Cuba would be massive successes if they were space colonies
          3. A hypothetical space colony would have a vastly different starting stock than either Cuba or NK. In particular, the space colony could start off with an extremely well-educated population with lots of equipment per person. Meanwhile NK and Cuba started off virtually illiterate and dirt poor

          • 1 month ago
            Anonymous

            If you rely on imported tools and knowledge it ISN'T long term sustainable. The tools will wear out, and the knowledge will decay. You need to be able to create both. Or in other words it doesn't end with the car factory: you need to be able to make all the parts, all the tools, mine all the materials, all the extra tools to make all the parts, the tools, and the mining equipment, and everything you need to purify or otherwise procesd the materials. All of that for every product that your colony wants to use. You probably want a chip factory, unless you want to be limited into the mid 20th century. And you need people who understand (rather than just know) all of that, otherwise the knowledge will be lost, and no new people will be trained..

  5. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Around eight billion.

  6. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    if you need tech to live you are dependent like a drug addict and literally don't know how to live.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      Tools, fire, clothing, agriculture are all technologies my guy.

  7. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Approximately the same size as the entire current world population that has an objectively measured IQ at least one standard deviation above average.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      hmmmm, how many is that?

  8. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    is there other life there? if we have to deal with fricking dragons that changes things

  9. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    >dude muh homosexual soiyence fiction space fantasies that got implanted in my low iq brain by watching lame Hollywood israelite propaganda movies

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      >t.

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous
        • 1 month ago
          Anonymous

          >no arrow

  10. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    110 is absurdly low. The Anunnaki sent around 50 high rank officers and 300 low rank workers and still had to face rebellions due hard labor conditions, so they had to create hybrids with apes to have some rest.

  11. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Depends heavily on the training technology.

    With hyperadvanced training tech the only limiting factor is having enough student attend cyber-university.

    Although the industry side is a harsh one as well. We would need a significant amount of co-existing industries to produce a motor vehicle or power tool. For that I'd put the bare minimum at 10k functional workers. But this is all highly dependent on starting tech allowing for long term spin up. Because if the joint has a matter compiler they can just use that to make repairs to other matter compilers and making a car is trivial then.

  12. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    110 can "maintain" a colony, but you'd need around 20,000 settlers as a minimum so you didn't get inbreeds.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      I think that 110 is enough even for the hindu law, so it's enough unless you'd want to follow medieval catholic rules which were even a bit stricter.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      "Basically you need 50 breeding individuals to avoid inbreeding depression and 500 in order to adapt". (this is upped to 500 to 5000 to deal with losses of genes when passing them down)
      so in theory, 110 should be just enough to avoid problems with inbreeding, but you'd need more people if you wanted to adapt to climate conditions (e.g. sun exposure, gravity, etc)
      in theory, you could also send thousands of frozen sperm samples to increase the genetic pool. all the colonists have to do is unfreeze the samples and inject them into women, which is a fairly low-tech process.

  13. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    >tech development restricted by population growth.
    Minimum 10 million people, and that's already being generous
    >knowledge: enough to earn a minor in math, physics and chemistry.
    10 people. You mostly just need books and teach children to read.
    >industry: can produce power tools, motor vehicles (especially for logistics and mining) and synthetic fertilizers. a power grid is available.
    Without explaining what kind of resources are there and how difficult is to extract them you're not saying much.
    Also if we are already informed and prepared for that environment or not.

  14. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Genetic diversity is a low number, what you need to accoubt for is stupidy. Most of the people will be average in intelligence and some belowm the first are the regular normies with normie jobs loke bakers and pipe maintenancem the latter are the garbage collectors and street cleaners. For tech to be sustainable through generations you need high intelligencem so you need aarger number of people if you want aarger minority of intelligent ones. I don't know what that number is, but my gut tells me 10 000 people shoild produce enough smart ones to keep the tech base going.

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *